Comments on: Has Russia the Atom Bomb? http://blog.modernmechanix.com/2007/06/26/has-russia-the-atom-bomb/ Yesterday's tomorrow, today. Sun, 22 Nov 2009 04:15:36 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Alex W. http://blog.modernmechanix.com/2007/06/26/has-russia-the-atom-bomb/comment-page-1/#comment-895803 Alex W. Tue, 11 Dec 2007 02:46:24 +0000 http://blog.modernmechanix.com/2007/06/26/has-russia-the-atom-bomb/#comment-895803 The biggest thing he and the American military were off on is the availability of uranium ore. They considered it much more rare than it was and underestimated Russia's ability to develop techniques to use low-grade ores. That was the limiting factor in the Russian bomb (not nuclear knowledge). But other than that he is pretty spot on in most respects. It should also be noted that at the time this was written the US only had between 15-50 bombs itself. And while it is true that the US maintained a quantitative advantage in terms of sheer warheads over Russia until around 1978, long before then both countries developed the means to destroy the infrastructure of the other. By 1958 Russia had around 800 nuclear weapons. More than a score or two. But for 1948, it's actually great analysis, barely wrong in any respects, a lot better than a lot of people were saying at the time. The biggest thing he and the American military were off on is the availability of uranium ore. They considered it much more rare than it was and underestimated Russia’s ability to develop techniques to use low-grade ores. That was the limiting factor in the Russian bomb (not nuclear knowledge). But other than that he is pretty spot on in most respects.

It should also be noted that at the time this was written the US only had between 15-50 bombs itself. And while it is true that the US maintained a quantitative advantage in terms of sheer warheads over Russia until around 1978, long before then both countries developed the means to destroy the infrastructure of the other. By 1958 Russia had around 800 nuclear weapons. More than a score or two.

But for 1948, it’s actually great analysis, barely wrong in any respects, a lot better than a lot of people were saying at the time.

]]> By: Firebrand38 http://blog.modernmechanix.com/2007/06/26/has-russia-the-atom-bomb/comment-page-1/#comment-281352 Firebrand38 Tue, 26 Jun 2007 20:24:37 +0000 http://blog.modernmechanix.com/2007/06/26/has-russia-the-atom-bomb/#comment-281352 Quite so, but reading farther and we find: Majority opinion indicates that the United States will retain its quantitative lead in bomb production for a very considerable period—perhaps until the 1960’s or 1970’s, perhaps indefinitely—and that it will take Russia a decade or more to acquire a stockpile of even a score or two of bombs. And yeah, I impress upon my son how many times in my lifetime that the "older and wiser heads" in government wanted to go nuclear. The whole Curtis Lemay thing runs a chill up my spine to this day. Quite so, but reading farther and we find:

Majority opinion indicates that the United States will retain its quantitative lead in bomb production for a very considerable period—perhaps until the 1960’s or 1970’s, perhaps indefinitely—and that it will take Russia a decade or more to acquire a stockpile of even a score or two of bombs.

And yeah, I impress upon my son how many times in my lifetime that the “older and wiser heads” in government wanted to go nuclear. The whole Curtis Lemay thing runs a chill up my spine to this day.

]]> By: Charlie http://blog.modernmechanix.com/2007/06/26/has-russia-the-atom-bomb/comment-page-1/#comment-281253 Charlie Tue, 26 Jun 2007 19:40:09 +0000 http://blog.modernmechanix.com/2007/06/26/has-russia-the-atom-bomb/#comment-281253 True, but he wasn't that far off. The article says 50-57. And if it hadn't of been for Fuchs that probably would have been accurate. But it's really besides the point. He was saying that even if they DO have nukes it's still not ok to attack them just because we are scared of them. True, but he wasn’t that far off. The article says 50-57. And if it hadn’t of been for Fuchs that probably would have been accurate. But it’s really besides the point. He was saying that even if they DO have nukes it’s still not ok to attack them just because we are scared of them.

]]> By: Firebrand38 http://blog.modernmechanix.com/2007/06/26/has-russia-the-atom-bomb/comment-page-1/#comment-280284 Firebrand38 Tue, 26 Jun 2007 11:45:43 +0000 http://blog.modernmechanix.com/2007/06/26/has-russia-the-atom-bomb/#comment-280284 Moral conviction maybe, but value of analysis is suspect. Don't forget that the Soviets exploded their 1st atom bomb August 29th, 1949. Moral conviction maybe, but value of analysis is suspect. Don’t forget that the Soviets exploded their 1st atom bomb August 29th, 1949.

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