What Will Life Be Like in the Year 2008? (Nov, 1968)
Well, we do have flat-screen computers you can write on that fit in a briefcase, but I’m still waiting to take my 250 MPH car to a business meeting in another domed city. Perhaps by the end of the year.
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40 Years in the Future
By James R. Berry
IT’S 8 a.m., Tuesday, Nov. 18, 2008, and you are headed for a business appointment 300 mi. away. You slide into your sleek, two-passenger air-cushion car, press a sequence of buttons and the national traffic computer notes your destination, figures out the current traffic situation and signals your car to slide out of the garage. Hands free, you sit back and begin to read the morning paper—which is flashed on a flat TV screen over the car’s dashboard. Tapping a button changes the page.
The car accelerates to 150 mph in the city’s suburbs, then hits 250 mph in less built-up areas, gliding over the smooth plastic road. You whizz past a string of cities, many of them covered by the new domes that keep them evenly climatized year round. Traffic is heavy, typically, but there’s no need to worry. The traffic computer, which feeds and receives signals to and from all cars in transit between cities, keeps vehicles at least 50 yds. apart. There hasn’t been an accident since the system was inaugurated. Suddenly your TV phone buzzes. A business associate wants a sketch of a new kind of impeller your firm is putting out for sports boats. You reach for your attache case and draw the diagram with a pencil-thin infrared flashlight on what looks like a TV screen lining the back of the case. The diagram is relayed to a similar screen in your associate’s office, 200 mi. away. He jabs a button and a fixed copy of the sketch rolls out of the device. He wishes you good luck at the coming meeting and signs off.Ninety minutes after leaving your home, you slide beneath the dome of your destination city. Your car decelerates and heads for an outer-core office building where you’ll meet your colleagues. After you get out, the vehicle parks itself in a convenient municipal garage to await your return. Private cars are banned inside most city cores. Moving sidewalks and electrams carry the public from one location to another.
With the U.S. population having soared to 350 million, 2008 transportation is among the most important factors keeping the economy running smoothly. Giant transportation hubs called modemixers are located anywhere from 15 to 50 mi. outside all major urban centers. Tube trains, pushed through bores by compressed air, make the trip between modemixer and central city in 10 to 15 minutes.
A major feature of most modemixers is the launching pad from which 200-passenger rockets blast off for other continents. For less well-heeled travelers there are SST and hypersonic planes that carry 200 to 300 passengers at speeds up to 4,000 mph. Short trips— between cities less than 1,000 mi. apart—are handled by slower jumbo jets.
Homes in Mi’s 80th year are practically self-maintaining. Electrostatic precipitators clean the air and climatizers maintain the temperature and humidity at optimum levels. Robots are available to do housework and other simple chores. New materials for siding and interiors are self-cleaning and never peel, chip or crack.
Dwellings for the most part are assembled from prefabricated modules, which can be attached speedily in the configuration that best suits the homeowner. Once the foundation is laid, attaching the modules to make up a two- or three-bedroom house is a job that doesn’t take more than a day. Such modular homes easily can be expanded to accommodate a growing family. A typical wedding present for the 21st century newlyweds is a fully equipped bedroom, kitchen or living room module.
Other conveniences ease kitchenwork. The housewife simply determines in advance her menus for the week, then slips prepackaged meals into the freezer and lets the automatic food utility do the rest. At preset times, each meal slides into the microwave oven and is cooked or thawed. The meal then is served on disposable plastic plates. These plates, as well as knives, forks and spoons of the same material, are so inexpensive they can be discarded after use.
The single most important item in 2008 households is the computer. These electronic brains govern everything from meal preparation and waking up the household to assembling shopping lists and keeping track of the bank balance. Sensors in kitchen appliances, climatizing units, communicators, power supply and other household utilities warn the computer when the item is likely to fail. A repairman will show up even before any obvious breakdown occurs.
Computers also handle travel reservations, relay telephone messages, keep track of birthdays and anniversaries, compute taxes and even figure the monthly bills for electricity, water, telephone and other utilities. Not every family has its private computer. Many families reserve time on a city or regional computer to serve their needs. The machine tallies up its own services and submits a bill, just as it does with other utilities.
Money has all but disappeared. Employers deposit salary checks directly into their employees’ accounts. Credit cards are used for paying all bills. Each time you buy something, the card’s number is fed into the store’s computer station. A master computer then deducts the charge from your bank balance.
Computers not only keep track of money, they make spending it easier. TV-telephone shopping is common. To shop, you simply press the numbered code of a giant shopping center. You press another combination to zero in on the department and the merchandise in which you are interested. When you see what you want, you press a number that signifies “buy,” and the household computer takes over, places the order, notifies the store of the home address and subtracts the purchase price from your bank balance. Much of the family shopping is done this way. Instead of being jostled by crowds, shoppers electronically browse through the merchandise of any number of stores.
People have more time for leisure activities in the year 2008. The average work day is about four hours. But the extra time isn’t totally free. The pace of technological advance is such that a certain amount of a jobholder’s spare time is used in keeping up with the new developments—on the average, about two hours of home study a day.
Most of this study is in the form of programmed TV courses, which can be rented or borrowed from tape _ * libraries. In fact most schooling—from first grade through college—consists of programmed TV courses or lectures via closed circuit. Students visit a campus once or twice a week for personal consultations or for lab work that has to be done on site. Progress of each student is followed by computer, which assigns end term marks on the basis of tests given throughout the term.
Besides school lessons, other educational material is available for TV viewing. You simply press a combination of buttons and the pages flash on your home screen. The world’s information is available to you almost instantaneously.
TV screens cover an entire wall in most homes and show most subjects other than straight text matter in color and three dimensions. In addition to programmed TV and the multiplicity of commercial fare, you can see top Broadway shows, hit movies and current nightclub acts for a nominal charge. Best-selling books are on TV tape and can be borrowed or rented from tape libraries.
A typical vacation in 2008 is to spend a week at an undersea resort, where your hotel room window looks out on a tropical underwater reef, a sunken ship or an ancient, excavated city. Available to guests are two- and three-person submarines in which you can cruise well-marked underwater trails.
Another vacation is a stay < on a hotel satellite. The rocket ride to the satellite and back, plus the vistas of earth and moon, make a memorable vacation jaunt.
While city life in 2008 has changed greatly, the farm has altered even more. Farmers are business executives running operations as automated as factories. TV scanners monitor tractors and other equipment computer programmed to plow, harrow and harvest. Wires imbedded in the ground send control signals to the machines. Computers also keep track of yields-, fertilization, soil composition and other factors influencing crops. At the beginning of each year, a print-out tells the farmer what to plant where, how much to fertilize and how much yield he can expect.
Farming isn't confined to land. Mariculturists have turned areas of the sea into beds of protein-rich seaweed and algae. This raw material is processed into food that looks and tastes like steak and other meats. It also is cheap; families can have steak-like meals twice a day without feeling a budget pinch. Areas in bays or close to shore have been turned into shrimp, lobster, clam and other shellfish ranches, like the cattle spreads of yesteryear.
Medical research has guaranteed that most babies born in the 21st century will live long and healthy lives. Heart disease has virtually been eliminated by drugs and diet. If hearts or other major organs do give trouble, they can be replaced with artificial organs.
Medical examinations are a matter of sitting in a diagnostic chair for a minute or two, then receiving a full health report. Ultrasensitive microphones and electronic sensors in the chair's headrest, back and armrests pick up heartbeat, pulse, breathing rate, galvanic skin response, blood pressure, nerve reflexes and other medical signs. A computer attached to the chair digests these responses, compares them to the normal standard and prints out a full medical report.
No need to worry about failing memory or intelligence either. The intelligence pill is another 21st century commodity. Slow learners or people struck with forgetful-ness are given pills which increase the production of enzymes controlling production of the chemicals known to control learning and memory. Everyone is able to use his full mental potential.
Despite the fact that the year 2008 is only 40 years away—as far ahead as 1928 is in the past—it will be a world as strange to us as our time (1968) would be to the pilgrims. •
Did you say domed or doomed?
Comment by jayessell — March 24, 2008 @ 4:59 am
Great find Charlie!
Repost it in November.
Comment by jayessell — March 24, 2008 @ 5:14 am
Your blog is fantastic! I love being able to step into the past and then go back to the future - which is, I must say, pretty accurate. But where is my forgetfulness pill??
Comment by Mary Burkey — March 24, 2008 @ 6:29 am
A fair amount of accuracy. The U.S. population is in excess of 300 million now. Home shopping, data transfer, microwave ovens, self-diagnosing appliances all exist.
Still waiting for those flying cars though.
Comment by Steam McQueen — March 24, 2008 @ 6:43 am
Charlie, I see a bit about 40 (now 80) years ago.
Can you post that?
Comment by jayessell — March 24, 2008 @ 9:25 am
I’m going to, but I also have the first issue of MI (then MM) so I’m going to post them together. I’ve scanned that issue but have not yet edited the images.
Comment by Charlie — March 24, 2008 @ 9:32 am
“People have more time for leisure activities in the year 2008. The average work day is about four hours.”
With the other 4 hours spent screwing around on Modern Mechanix….
Comment by sporkinum — March 24, 2008 @ 10:57 am
Did you see the ad (2nd to last page). Make money by stuffing envelopes. 12 bucks and hour in 1968. I guess that’s about $100 an hour in 2008?
Comment by William Hudgens — March 25, 2008 @ 9:06 am
No, it’s still something less than zero, as it is a scam.
They want you to buy the machine FROM THEM.
The supplies FROM THEM.
The list of prospective customers FROM THEM.
(Probably taken from the phonebook.)
Comment by jayessell — March 25, 2008 @ 9:44 am
Fabulous! Funny how the author got somethings right (modemixers) and other things wrong. Regardless, even if the author was off-course with his 300 mph cars and rocket trips to other continents, I still believe we are already living in the science fiction era.
Comment by Kevin — March 25, 2008 @ 10:23 am
Oh man! I can’t wait!!!!
Comment by Tim Danke — March 25, 2008 @ 10:49 am
So who’s going to write the article on how life will be in 2048? I’d like to read that one.
Comment by Candis — March 25, 2008 @ 10:52 am
Do you have information somewhere (or a site you can recommend) about the publishing history of these magazines? Like, when did Mechanix Illustrated live and die? What’s the history of Popular Science and Popular Mechanics? What about other vanished rivals?
Comment by Bill Higgins-- Beam Jockey — March 25, 2008 @ 11:13 am
Bill… just google. We ARE in the 21st Century!
PS and PM still exist!
Comment by jayessell — March 25, 2008 @ 11:18 am
I was very surprised by this. I just hope that futurist today can guesstimate this close to how we will live 40 years from now.
Comment by MovvBuzz.com — March 25, 2008 @ 11:19 am
Candis, I have an idea for 2048, but it’s Dystopian.
Stock up on mustard.
Comment by jayessell — March 25, 2008 @ 11:24 am
Still no flying cars, check out the second page on robots doing all house chores, guess we’re still stuck with maids. Great find!
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Comment by ReadTheWords — March 25, 2008 @ 11:44 am
Re: Robots doing the household chores:
Sir, my Roomba and Scooba are most offended at your anti-robot (pro-maid) attitude…
Tongue firmly in cheek, Alan
Comment by Alan J. Richer — March 25, 2008 @ 12:12 pm
we have almost everything mentioned here, like the cleaning robots (the little carpet vacuuming robots), and the “Moller sky car M400″ (but its expected to be released to private investors by 2012). the main reason we do not have these mainstream is due to the lack of funding being put towards these things.
Comment by Serveck — March 25, 2008 @ 2:50 pm
Nice find
Comment by VR — March 25, 2008 @ 3:50 pm
The Moller SkyCar has been promised too long too many times, to the point the company seems a poor investment.
As soon as one takes off, climbs to 1000 feet, flies 10 minutes and lands.
Twice.
Without refueling.
THEN I’ll concede the existence of a flying car.
(Technically, to be a flying CAR, you would have to be able to drive it on the ground. City and Highway.)
Comment by jayessell — March 25, 2008 @ 4:17 pm
The main problem with flying cars is that, if it stalls, it stalls from several metres in the air. Unless it was to work from natural magnetism, you’re then essentially dead.
Comment by Deed — March 25, 2008 @ 4:33 pm
The flying cars were never a good idea. But if something like the envisioned public transportation had been built, we’d all be better off. Maybe forty years from now?
Comment by Jim T — March 25, 2008 @ 4:40 pm
Here’s the BIG thing they got wrong in 1963: They thought that in the future we’d work less (4 hours a day). Instead, we work MORE!
Comment by Roger — March 25, 2008 @ 4:42 pm
You always hear about how the rate of change is accelerating but weren’t the changes from 1928 to 1968 greater than the changes from 1968 to 2008? In 1928 there was no TV, no interstate highway system, no atomic bomb, no jet aircraft, no computers. Since 1968? - personal computers, the internet, cell phones, Com and weather satellites, GPS, genetic engineering. Seems like the changes have actually been smaller in the past forty years than from 1928 to 1968.
Comment by Ron — March 25, 2008 @ 8:38 pm
This line cracks me up:
“Credit cards are used for paying all bills. Each time you buy something, the card’s number is fed into the store’s computer station. A master computer then deducts the charge from your bank balance.”
because it assumes Americans will have positive bank balances in 2008 instead of living off borrowings.
Comment by GT — March 25, 2008 @ 9:03 pm
This is great. But obviously written by a bloke who thought a lot about technology but less so about changing social roles:
The housewife simply determines in advance her menus for the week…
Comment by Neil — March 25, 2008 @ 9:04 pm
I guess the notion of pollution and conservation was not popular 40 years ago.
Comment by Charles Wilson — March 25, 2008 @ 9:09 pm
Gender roles were something that no sci-fi writer or futurist of the era seemed to think would change. Novels or short stories would have flying cars, super-intelligent AIs, matter transport, telepathy … but all the women did was sit at home waiting to push the button on the microwave. Oh, and religion was non-existent.
Futurists aren’t so good at predicting the really big changes, like cell phones or women’s liberation.
Comment by Willy — March 25, 2008 @ 9:23 pm
> Oh, and religion was non-existent.
Yes, that will take another 40 years.
Comment by Allan — March 25, 2008 @ 10:25 pm
2048: The oil ran out, and nobody was prepared. The world market crashes. Your average work day is 0 hours, because nobody can find work. You can’t drive or use any other transportation, because everything has turned to shit, the oil is gone and the power grid failed quickly after - being completely overwhelmed by the sudden surge in electricity usage by people trying to charge batteries and stay warm.
You starve to death, or are shot to death for your left sock.
Would you like to play again?
Comment by Joe — March 25, 2008 @ 11:05 pm
This is like most predictions of the future world that I have seen. The technological side is fairly accurate, but the social side is laughable.
The prediction suffers due to the person’s naïveté as regards the way society functions. Specifically, there is a lack of understanding of capitalism. I have seen many predictions that technology will lead to shorter working hours, but even a basic understanding of capitalism brings you to predict that it will lead to higher unemployment instead.
When they predict that diets will be better, they suffer from the same naïveté about marketing and communication in a capitalist society.
Similarly, unthinking acceptance of selfish individualism and total ignorance of environmental concerns lead them to believe that improved transit of human beings can come about via flashy technological advances in the motorcar, rather than greater investment in public transport.
Apart from the implausibility of machines that tell you what maintenance needs to be performed on them (if the fault is as predictable as that, it will always be easier to take preventive measures than to install countless delicate sensors), they failed to understand that goods would be so cheap to make that people would no longer even consider taking them to be repaired by an skilled workman.
It’s quite interesting.
Comment by David Short — March 25, 2008 @ 11:15 pm
So who’s going to write the article on how life will be in 2048? I’d like to read that one.
simple take the article above:
1) change the year
2) substitute cybernetic internet connection for TV
3) update some of the examples (schematics will be sent directly from brain to brain with no physical drawing).
and your done.
Comment by Konrad — March 25, 2008 @ 11:19 pm
Remember Back to the Future?
I want my flash frozen pizza which i can cook in 4 seconds!
( oh and flying cars, yea, them… )
Suppose we’ll have to wait till November for the dome thingy.
Comment by Skyzrnecki — March 26, 2008 @ 12:14 am
Does anyone know if James R. Berry is still alive? I’d love to know what he thinks about his predictions and how they have turned out.
I’ve tried googling but can’t really pin him down.
Comment by Punky — March 26, 2008 @ 6:54 am
Surprisingly accurate in many ways, but for several specific reasons I think it will be a long time until flying cars are generally available. 1. Inefficiency; it takes a lot of energy to hold an object up in the air in addition to the energy needed to travel horizontally. 2. People have enough trouble navigating in two dimensions; add a third dimension and you have chaos, especially on Saturday nights! Maybe a few flying/hover cars would be handy the way helicopters have specialized uses now. For example I can see how a high speed flying ambulance could save lives and the gas mileage be damned!
Comment by James Clements — March 26, 2008 @ 6:58 am
@Beth:
Yes. In 1968 when that was written, that wasn’t considered sexist. In some places, it’s still considered acceptable, as is the male equivalent (usually “stay-at-home husband/dad”).
Comment by dUc0N — March 26, 2008 @ 7:16 am
perhaps the story “ascende” i started to write might be fitting in here
Comment by mayloveheal — March 26, 2008 @ 8:28 am
One problem though; this guy goes to work in 90 minutes. Average 200MPH thats 300 miles. In the article it says intercity travel is done by modemmixers in 10-15 minutes.
Comment by Cobras4ever — March 26, 2008 @ 9:38 am
OK, no flying cars, but we have the iPhone. You can’t have everything…
Comment by Brian — March 26, 2008 @ 9:46 am
Cobras4ever - it says he is headed to a business appointment not necessarily to his office and it also mentions that he passes by several cities on the way.
Comment by Mike — March 26, 2008 @ 9:57 am
This is funny you never know what future brings. but he is complety wrong.
Comment by Hans anders — March 26, 2008 @ 9:58 am
@Willy: “Gender roles were something that no sci-fi writer or futurist of the era seemed to think would change.”
Gene Roddenberry says hello. But I guess there’s a difference between predicting 40 years and 300 years into the future.
Comment by Matt — March 26, 2008 @ 10:20 am
I would have hoped the speedboat impeller was computer designed and not just a sketch from some guy in a car!
Where are the napkins from our last design conference?
Comment by jayessell — March 26, 2008 @ 10:28 am
I don’t see such things in another 100 years from now.
Comment by Webb — March 26, 2008 @ 11:07 am
I wonder if the author of this article is aware that his work is being read in “straight text” on “multi-function TV’s” around the world. That must be satisfying to be so right….if he is still alive….
Comment by Kelly — March 26, 2008 @ 11:12 am
The world will not change because there are people who want to remain in the past - theirs or their ancestors. I’m not talking about conservation or parkland - I’m tlakingabout wanting to preserve battlefields! A small area of a battlefield , like Gettysburg, ie, would be enough - educate the people about the tragedies of war, but don’t enslave the populace to maintain and keep a field that can be used for desparately needed housing or something more … usable. History needs to be learned, but not at the cost of the future. JMHO
Comment by Kathleen Pearlman — March 26, 2008 @ 11:18 am
> So who’s going to write the article on how life will be in 2048? I’d like to read that one.
We’ll all be facing Mecca five times a day to pray. Or shot as infidels.
Comment by Tim — March 26, 2008 @ 12:21 pm
We do have flying cars that can travel at 250 mph +. That is, if you count train carriages as cars. I’m talking about the Transrapid train that runs between Shanghai and Pudong Airport, of course. Technically, the train doesn’t fly on an air cushion, though; it uses electromagnetism to levitate, instead.
Comment by B22 — March 26, 2008 @ 12:29 pm
Many of the previous comments are quite valid. What I find interesting in these forecasts is how so much of the past is obliterated by future generations. The old roads are gone, the highways, the buildings, the suburbs (assuming those domes and modemixers have to go somewhere!). It’s always as if energy and resources are so plentiful in the future that we have the luxury to clean the slate and start fresh everywhere at once. Consider how absurd this is even from the perspective of 1968. Cities in 1968 certainly had buildings 50, 75 or 100 years old. Yes, new interstates were being built, but the old inter-city routes weren’t being destroyed in the process. New homes are built all the time, but old ones aren’t razed on a city-wide basis. The future grows piecemeal, and somewhat ‘organically’, as the needs of society/politics/capitalism drive it. I suspect the world of 2048 will -look- largely the same as the world of 2008, even if a number of unimaginable creations have transformed the daily life of billions of humans in the developed world.
Comment by RoverDaddy — March 26, 2008 @ 12:43 pm
“A typical vacation in 2008 is to spend a week at an undersea resort, where your hotel room window looks out on a tropical underwater reef, a sunken ship or an ancient, excavated city. Available to guests are two- and three-person submarines in which you can cruise well-marked underwater trails.”
Even this is possible now, amazing prediction! The Poseidon undersea resort in Fiji is 40 feet (12 meters) underwater which will open on september 2008(!!)
Check it
http://www.poseidonresorts.com/poseidon_main.html
Comment by TCo — March 26, 2008 @ 12:43 pm
The great developments in human history can be categorized, in a large part, as related to communication or transportation. Does it seem peculiar that almost all of the communication advances mentioned here are now old hat, already achieved and then some, while the transportation advances seem to be highly futuristic? Could it be the result of incredible resistance by oil companies and their kin to fossil fuels?
Comment by bob friedly — March 26, 2008 @ 2:21 pm
In a science fiction novel written in 1928 similar predictions were supposed to materialize by 1958, which of course did not happen even now in 2008.
Substantial changes happen at a much slower pace, than the “futurists” would like us to believe. With the prevalence of usage of computers in today’s workplaces though, the the rate of change could be accelarated somewhat.
Comment by Verda Stelo — March 26, 2008 @ 2:28 pm
Verda, can you remember the title? Was it non-english language?
Comment by jayessell — March 26, 2008 @ 3:41 pm
Man, this is depressing. As someone else noted, the rate of progress appears to be slowing, not accelerating. Between 1928 and 1968, tremendous changes for the better. Between 1968 and today.. not so much.
In fact, it appears that inflation adjusted wage per American worker have fallen 30% since 1968, if you use consistent indexes. No wonder we’re so gloomy these days:
http://www.safehaven.com/article-1942.htm
Comment by logic — March 26, 2008 @ 3:58 pm
logic » I don’t really buy the argument that the rate of progress is slowing. It just depends on where you look. Yes, in terms of progress in transportation, energy production and such things are certainly slowing. But partially that’s because we don’t really need them to go any faster. Progress is fastest when it has little cost. Right now the most bang for your buck in improvements is in information technologies. Computers, networks, storage, all of these are increasing and improving at a prodigious rate. Medical science is kind of slow, but the actual research is starting to take off as bioinformatics, and functional research improves. Because we are now able to leverage information processing tech in medicine we are seeing great improvement. I think that eventually this will also effect other areas. As computer control becomes more efficient travel costs and risks will go down, etc.
Comment by Charlie — March 26, 2008 @ 4:03 pm
The 1928 book I was mentioning was in Czech language. It was actualy a book for adolescents, describing some interstellar travel adventures of young people, but specificaly mentioning the year as 1958. Only as a background it was describing the earthly automated high-speed individual transport, automated households, agriculture, domed cities and a wrist-attached device enabling limitless communication and containing all of the humanity’s knowledge instantly retrievable, which supposedly made all schooling obsolete.
I read it in the early 1960’s as a then youngster myself and I considered that old and tattered book amusing. At that time there were the first man-made satellites orbiting the Earth and a man on the Moon was only a speculation.
I really don’t remember neither the title nor the author, too bad, now I would consider it less of a joke as then.
Comment by Verda Stelo — March 26, 2008 @ 4:56 pm
Why progress is taken for granted as a desired aspect of modern society? What does progress mean anyway? Many different cultures have many different understandings in relation to what progress means. Progress in terms of conserving the survival base of humanity is definitely slowing if it ever existed in modern Western society. Do you think personal flying cars are really desirable? In what terms?
As an additional comment, everything in this article changes dramatically except the social role of woman, i.e. “housewife dealing with menus”. I find the crooked and overtly technocentric yet traditionalist american view of life, which hasn’t changed in the past 40 years, so naive and hilarious. please continue to have 5 kids per family and send them to middle east to fight for petrol which will be fed into your flying cars. oh, and of course disposable plastic cutlery is a great idea since everything can be substituted by money and cost determines the overall benefit.
Comment by aig — March 26, 2008 @ 6:21 pm
Charlie says “Progress is fastest when it has little cost.” I’m not sure that’s right, actually. For instance, when it comes to computers, new fab plants for making chips and memory can cost billions, but they get built all the same. I think probably progress is fastest when politics is not involved. Politics is involved in transport in a big way. That’s why, even though what is theoretically possible is amazing, nothing much has changed for nearly a century. If we combined maglev with the PRT concept, and enclosed the system in vacuum tunnels to minimize drag, we could have supersonic ground transport that used no more energy than our present cars — probably less. At least, that’s what theory indicates, and that’s what one company is proposing (see http://www.magtube.com ). Yet getting even moderate, incremental improvements in transport infrastructure, never mind something revolutionary, is nigh impossible.
Comment by B22 — March 26, 2008 @ 7:53 pm
I think this article as quite wonderful and very accurate! If we had not had to fight various wars throughout the world, all mankind would be further along!
In my mid sixties now, I am please that I have experienced such terrific innovations, progress, and great science applied to every aspect of our lives.
When one says, the good ol’ days, I stop and think, why? I wouldn’t trade today them for anything. Today is wonderful.
Thanks you to all of you scientific innovators. Thank you for all you have done in every aspect and field of science!
Comment by Dennis Dowling — March 26, 2008 @ 9:01 pm
IN 40 years from NOW Duke nukem Forever will be released..
Comment by oppman — March 26, 2008 @ 9:05 pm
Excellent find. Very fun! It’s interesting that the writers imagined such advnaces in only 40 years. My readers on http://www.harvealan.com will get a kick out of the article and your site. Mine is a media commentary site (focused on radio and audio entertainment), but this will fit in nicely sincemuch of what I write about is the future and what we can expect next.
Comment by Harve Alan — March 26, 2008 @ 9:06 pm
I think one reason that change appears to have been slower than a futurist of the past might have reasonably predicted is that as a society we have certainly gotten a bit soft. We are currently more interested in our personal satisfactions and endless social/legal/political arguments than in scientific and technical progress. Even the notion of progress in that sense somehow sounds trite to our jaded ears. Way too many of us are so wrapped up my-me-mine that we even forget to uh… reproduce? (a rather essential part of shaping the future), nevermind support essential R&D and bold, long-term engineering efforts.
Comment by GSorensen — March 26, 2008 @ 9:53 pm
Well - if you want to have a chuckle - sit back and watch 2001 Space Oddessy, or even a couple of episodes of Space 1999
Picturing the future has always had issues
Comment by Marcwolf — March 26, 2008 @ 10:44 pm
Too bad they didn’t see the upcoming of radical Islam. No one would have believed it anyway I suppose, since so many still don’t believe it even now. Not too many domes around here yet, except for water storage. Computers and interactive TV were on the money it seems. It is sad that space exploration fell under the bus. Now we have no space vehicles ready to replace the shuttle and we’ll be dependent on the Russians and others, eeegads!
Comment by Rick — March 26, 2008 @ 10:51 pm
I’m amazed that no one has mentioned how far off the author was on his predictions for education.
Even in 1968,one had to realize that the teachers unions would never allow home schooling to become commonplace.This artificial cost is probably a huge reason why we haven’t as quickly as the author thought.
I’ll give him a pass on the population estimate.He couldn’t possibly anticipate Roe v Wade.
Comment by Tom Dockery — March 26, 2008 @ 10:53 pm
I personally blame it all on the dark ages, and the destruction of the library at Alexandria. We were THAT close….
Comment by Jarad Evans — March 26, 2008 @ 11:33 pm
I keep hoping on those 4 work hours a day… to Nov 18 we have more than 6 month to achieve that.
Comment by Hans — March 27, 2008 @ 1:37 am
It is remarkable how many things are right, even though some are way over the top. What I found interesting though, is that things such as studying at home, underwater holidays and TV shopping/courses just dont work!!
Studying at home can still be done, but the author should’ve known it wouldn’t be half as effective as a proper university course. TV shopping and studying has been tried way before, but it just doesn’t have the same advantages of going to a shop and physically seeing the products. As for underwater holidays, the costs of maintaining an underwater resort somehow doesn’t seem to weigh up against the fascinating idea of staring out into the darkness of the ocean as opposed to having a good old fashioned beach holiday.
Comment by Willem — March 27, 2008 @ 3:40 am
The way it could’ve been without carter reagan ford nixon and the bush brigade. Think if all those admins were as fun as clintons era.
Good products ie proliferation of ipods, more hdtv, broadband and other Progress not war without end.
Comment by Bill M. — March 27, 2008 @ 4:06 am
MY GUARANTEED PREDICTIONS FOR LIFE IN 2048:
1. Greedy capitalists will STILL be selling batteries in 6 packs when all electromagnetic devices require 4.
2. Future message board readers will be amazed to discover that all of us were too brainwashed to notice the IMPENDING ECOLOGICAL APOCALYPSE of 3012 due to the alarming rise of Sodium Benzoate levels in drinking water and topsoil erosion from flying snails that emerged from this water (Those idiots back in 2008 were too preoccupied with a laughable fairy tale called “Global Warming” just as their idiot parents were duped by the “Population Bomb” and “Coming Ice Age” 40 years earlier- humans never learn!)
3. Oil will jump to $200 a bbl when Saudi Arabia and Kuwait announce their oil reserves will begin to FINALLY (honest to gawd this time, seriously, no more joking) take a dip in 3075.(Las Vegas casinos are unimpressed as they start booking wagers on which will occur first, Oil Depletion or THE FLYING CAR production model.)
4. Ex-President Barak Obama will be laid to rest at Arlington National Cemetery by the current President, Barak Obama-Soros the 3rd. Legions of Black Preachers, Wealthy Rap Stars, and Millionaire Basketball Players use this occasion to complain how Black folks have it rough and still can’t catch a break from the white man or whitey’s new bosses in China.
Comment by Joe S. — March 27, 2008 @ 5:05 am
The most accurate vision:
“You simply press a combination of buttons and the pages flash on your home screen. The world’s information is available to you almost instantaneously.”
Today this is named “Internet”.
Comment by Stef — March 27, 2008 @ 5:17 am
Stef… also the world’s misinformation and disinformation.
(Why only 3 inches?)
Comment by jayessell — March 27, 2008 @ 5:23 am
>We’ll all be facing Mecca five times a day to pray. Or shot as infidels.
Here in Europe, that may (will?) come sooner than 2048 if we’re not very careful, my friend!
Comment by becks — March 27, 2008 @ 5:33 am
It’s amazing how accurate he was with most things, especially how he predicted the Internet, in a sense. What made me laugh was how he predicted that there will be artificial hearts and other organs.
It reminds me of stories my Dad told me of when he went to church back in the 1950s has a kid and how the priest would condemn movies like “Frankenstein,” saying how it would never happen. Now, we are reattaching limbs or even using parts from dead people to help sick or injured ones.
Comment by Anthony — March 27, 2008 @ 6:07 am
When I started reading I thought “This is going to be a great laugh.” But as I read on I was more like… “Whoa.” I can’t believe how many nails he hit on the head. Paper/plastic plates and utensils, internet, direct deposit, shopping from home (I’m a huge fan of Amazon lol), online college courses where you only have to go to lab once or twice a week, automatic bill pay, Turbo Tax! lol, premium cable channels… I know I’ve missed some. A good amount of those, of course, are a far cry from realization but just as many are in the works! Amazing. I, too, would like to know if this guy is still alive. Very fascinating.
Comment by Lori P. — March 27, 2008 @ 6:10 am
This article was clearly written by a person with a scientific mind, because it is so nieve, We don’t have the flying cars because of the greed of Big Oil, they have held Us all back and because of this fighting over oil, We will all pay in the end. Just think of how different this World would be if We had no use for the Oil in the middle East, there would be no money to finance the Terrorists. Thanks Big Oil.
Comment by Art Trombley — March 27, 2008 @ 6:33 am
So, Can everyone tell about his vision for the future?
Imagine.
Comment by Abdel Fattah Radjab Abdel Fattah — March 27, 2008 @ 7:18 am
Love to see that international computer for cars, far as long as the government doesn’t regulate it.
To bad oil companies will all go away eventually, when we open our oil rigs in Texas.
Comment by Justin Kaz — March 27, 2008 @ 7:21 am
There is a memory-improving pill available now: Centrophenoxine. It’s not available in the US because the patent has expired and it’s quite cheap, so there’s no incentive for any drug company to get it approved in the US. The US pharmaceutical system is set up for drug-company profits as the highest priority. Centrophenoxine can be ordered from European companies, however.
The four-hour workday prediction didn’t take into account the capitalist system and suppression of unions. Corporations kept the same workday and kept all increases in productivity as profits for investors.
I predict 2048 will be a much gloomier era, since most of the oil will have been used up by then. (We’ve just reached the halfway point, and it will cost more to get the remaining oil. Google “hubbert peak”.) It’s hard to see how mass die-offs can be prevented in the next 40 years, as the (expanding) population is unsustainable with the dwindling oil supply. (Some have suggested the world’s elite (Google “Bilderberg Society”) have plans to forcibly reduce the world’s population by 80% before this happens.)
Plant life produces oil from carbon dioxide in the air, water, and sunlight. In 2048 I predict this mechanism will be reproduced synthetically, and there will be oil factories, but research into this will be delayed by oil corporations that want to get every last cent of profit from oil pumped from the ground. The synthetically-produced oil will be too little too late to help humanity.
Recycling will become crucial in the coming decades as we go through the limited supply of natural resources. I predict in 2048 robots will be mining the landfills of 20th-century garbage for raw materials such as metals.
In 2048 the corporate takeover of the world’s democracies will be complete. Civil liberties will be a quaint idea from a simpler time. Corporations and governments will merge as only political parties financed by corporations will be allowed. Surveillance of citizens will be almost continuous, and all communication will be monitored and censored at will.
Only a small minority of the population necessary for corporate functioning will have a decent standard of living. The majority of the population will be in poverty, struggling to survive. As a result, a strong security force (like a combination between police and army) will have a presence everywhere to maintain “order”.
Comment by Alan M. Balkany — March 27, 2008 @ 7:38 am
Alan… What the Nazis had planned to do after WWII, had they won?
Comment by jayessell — March 27, 2008 @ 7:54 am
@Matt
“@Willy: “Gender roles were something that no sci-fi writer or futurist of the era seemed to think would change.”
Gene Roddenberry says hello. But I guess there’s a difference between predicting 40 years and 300 years into the future.”
As, indeed, does Isaac Asimov; Susan Calvin first appeared in a story in the mid-forties.
Comment by TomJ — March 27, 2008 @ 7:59 am
I predict that 2048 will be strikingly similar to the world of today. There will be no catastrophes that make the world a hugely different place. It will still snow in Virginia and Missouri and people will still transport themselves manually. I *hope* that trains catch on as a method of interstate transport since the government has regulated air travel to the point where it is not only inconvenient but simply not an option for some people. Amtrak might be less bankrupt.
Uhhh lets see. Cows will still provide milk and less things will be made out of plastic since its charm as a be-everything substance is wearing off. Plenty of stuff will be but metal and rubber will come back into style for a lot of stuff. Recycling will be more important as the worlds raw ore mines start to charge more and output less. Landfills will be “mined” for old metals which can be melted down and re-used. As this system becomes more set in, the idea of imposing the duty of recycling on each consumer will fade and regular garbage collection and transfer stations will come back into style where they were phased out, for cost and efficacy reasons.
Police will still need warrants to search houses and tap your phone, you will still have your right to bear arms and smoke cigarettes (even if they cost more), people will continue to be looked down on for smoking pot even if the laws are relaxed, people will still go to church, people will still use phones that are plugged into walls… racism will not be eliminated, homophobia will still be widespread, we won’t be able to save everyone from an unnatural death or curable disease, and the internet will still be full of people with grandoise ideas about the way the world works, or will work.
Comment by Kyle — March 27, 2008 @ 8:17 am
Hey Kids,
I found a James R Berry author of 4 SF titles. Galactic Invaders, Quas Starbrite, Magincian of Erianne, and Stranger from a Distant Planet. I tmay be the same columnist who wrote this 1968 futurist piece.
Comment by Brynne Sissom — March 27, 2008 @ 8:45 am
I published a link to this on my SQL Sever Reporting Services blog, http://bobp1339.blogspot.com/.
Thanks for the article. I love it!
BobP
Comment by Bob — March 27, 2008 @ 8:50 am
2048 alas shall not arrive with humans or much other life on the planet as we know…. we will not see 2020.. cataclysmic natural events begin to occur approximately 2012 with massive earthquakes in parts of the world that haven’t had them before. Pangea continues to move continents northward at an accelerated rate now, the sudden (approximately 425 year occurance) axial shift from vertical to 32.8 degrees southerly throws earth’s rotation off by 2.78% at the end and literally all things attached to the crust are totally destroyed, the oceans replacing much of the land as the warming of the current polar icecaps decimate the lands. Increasing violent weather brought on by the massive landshifts and subsequent ocean currents produce biblical floods to all parts of the globe….
Not to fear, life will return to the planet… sometime around 5000 - 10000
Comment by snazzlefritz1800 — March 27, 2008 @ 9:04 am
In 2048, futurologists will be predicting that the four-hour working day will be coming Real Soon Now…
Comment by David C — March 27, 2008 @ 9:17 am
I forsee in the near, make that very near future, more terrorist attacks on the free world, war, atomic war and those surviving will still use oil driven vehicles, science will still be repressed. they have just announced a 500 billion barrel oil find in North Dakota, South Dakota and Missouri, this will fuel BIG OIL for another 100 years, the powers that are have known of this oil for decades, they have just been waiting for the $100 a barrel mark. Greed is the ugliest face of Mankind. I have nothing against the People of the middle East, they have a right to be angry, just as the Black People of America do. In closing, I see a very bleak future, I wish and hope to be proven wrong, For My Grand Daughters sake, May God Bless Us All.
Comment by Art Trombley — March 27, 2008 @ 9:20 am
I agree that this is a great article with many accurate predictions. Let’s talk about the domed cities for a second. Why would you do this, what material would you use to build the domes, and how much would that cost? The advantage would be an air conditioned city where you could have short sleeves all the time. But what kind of power plant would be required to recirculate all the air in the city, and keep it warm or cool? Who would be willing to pay the bill for all that power? Would one really want to sit in one’s back yard and stare up into a glass plate?
Comment by Myles — March 27, 2008 @ 9:55 am
Apparently the authors did not anticipate the opposition from environmentalist wackos . . .
Comment by Andrew — March 27, 2008 @ 12:20 pm
Jane!, How do you stop this thing…………………….,Oh!, I am sorry about that, that was The Jetsons!
The Imagery is beautiful, but sadly this never happed, and you call that THE FUTURE?(sigh!)
“women liberation?”, that irrelevant (that’s weird), I think women HAS not changed at all!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!, I love woman!, who ever wrote that subject, Just mind your own manners!!!!!!!! , where was I?, oh!, The Jetsons!, It’s amazing that where are now starting to complain about “OIL”(dirty word) , but not the “future”
(SIGH)!
Comment by Scott Houdek — March 27, 2008 @ 12:33 pm
@ Scott Houdek: make moar sense pl0x. kthxbai
Comment by Mai — March 27, 2008 @ 1:21 pm
In 2048 silicon chips will have long been fullly developed to the limits of what silicon can accomplish. This will mean that computer chips will finally get out of their decades long speed race and let prices come down as never before. It will usher in the age of true interconnectiveness amongest all electronics. These chips will be stronger then a quad core use less energy then a single core and cost less then a can of pop. They will be in everything that runs on electricity and allow them to connect with each other wirelessly and/or through the power grid. This along with lowered costs in all electronic devices will also allow the coveted $100 laptop to be made and most likely go down to $50 or lower. Which in turn will let all people around the world even in the most poor and remote areas of the world have computer access if they wish. Coupled with an increased population this will lead to cooperative computing projects many times greater then SETI at home.
Comment by David — March 27, 2008 @ 2:33 pm
Stef… Re #73… Misinformation.
http://water4gas.com/2books.htm?hop=eclipse123
The webmaster of the above website doesn’t understand the energy to electrolyze water
exceeds the energy gained from it as a fuel.
Also, an explosive fuel /oxygen mixture in the air intake doesn’t sound safe.
Comment by jayessell — March 27, 2008 @ 2:56 pm
Yes, and the housewife will have such an easy time preparing all the meals, and we’ll just throw all our plastic everything away after one use, because who cares, it’s cheap! On to the future!
Comment by robert — March 27, 2008 @ 4:13 pm
It’s possible that China will FAR outstrip us in the technical and scientific domains simply because:
a. They produce way more human resource to take up these occupations than we in the West do. I think I read, something like a few hundred times more Engineering graduates per year. Do they need a “No child left behind” program? I doubt it.
b. Those same grads will work for the wages that an illegal Mexican landscaper gets here (in the U.S.)
c. They have huge cash reserves to invest and the foresight to do it.
d. Are much more lightly encumbered by ethical considerations, social welfare concerns. Stem cell debate? Cloning debate? Nuclear power debate? Problems with teaching Evolution in schools? Don’t think so.
e. Although they do have some internal ethnic strife have a stronger collective identity than we do, which can be more easily focused toward national goals. Furthermore, care about China first and everybody else in 10th position and below, with nothing in between.
China is casting a huge shadow forward into the next few centuries.
Comment by GSorensen — March 27, 2008 @ 4:34 pm
Well, I’ll take a shot at 2048 predictions:
- applying Moore’s law, computer processing power should increase to billions of times what it is now. This will make human intelligence quaint. Surely, within the next 40 years, someone will be stupid enough to make a computer smarter than him, or her.
- travel between countries, or even cities for that matter, will be near impossible due to the quarantine restrictions, what with all the old-fashioned natural and new man-made infections. Because of this, most activities will be online, rather than in person: school, shopping, meetings, etc.. Public transportation will be for the desperately poor. Most local transportation, for freight or rare personal traveling, will be by computer-guided individual cars on high-speed express lanes. These cars will talk with each other, negotiating on the fly, and spacing will be sub-meter even while speeds exceed 200Km/h. For those wanting to maintain manual control, these express lanes will be off-limits.
- Populations everywhere will be shrinking and we’ll still be talking about the “demographic time bomb.” Old people everywhere will be wondering if their pensions will be worth anything, or who’s going to help them. Some things never change.
- There will be no privacy, none. The young people of today will demand complete transparency in all activities. They will not associate with, nor vote for, anyone that demands or even expects the slightest level of privacy. Some level of publicly embarrassing information will be expected; those without it will not be trusted.
- The biggest debates will be on how much we’re going to be augmenting our children. After all, simply normal children won’t be able to compete in a society that demands 80hr work weeks. At a minimum, children will have to have a genetic tolerance to amphetamines, or whatever stimulant replaces them. Coffee will be a quaint drink that children get before bedtime.
David…
Comment by Dave — March 27, 2008 @ 4:50 pm
If you are interested in how technology may develop in the next 50-100 years, read “The Singularity is Near” by Ray Kurzweil. He considers technology to be the next stage of evolution for humanoids.
Notice that two areas that haven’t made the progress predicted are roads and education, both of which are provided by government. In “Revolutionary Wealth” the Tofflers compare the speeds at which different institutions change. If business and companies change at 100 mph, government bureaucracies and agencies change at 25 mph, the government-run education system runs at 10 mph, and political structures (Congress, Senate) in wealthy countries change at 3 mph.
As for greed (e.g. capitalists and oil companies), as long as they can’t force me to buy what I don’t want, as long as they can only earn money by providing goods and services we want and value, then I have no problem with them. But when the government interferes and prevents or limits competition then I have a problem. (Remember when Bell was the only long distance company?) When greed is able to co-opt politicians, we are in trouble.
As far as shopping goes, we do have online and TV shopping as predicted. What he missed was the shopping mall. Back in 1948, supermarkets were just starting to replace the corner grocery store.
As for predictions of apocalypse, I’ve lived through a few; the Year 2000 (computer) non-crisis being more recent, the Club of Rome’s “Limits to Growth” was somewhat earlier, and Malthus’ predictions of global starvation were even before my time. We will not run out of oil suddenly; it will happen gradually while the price increases. (I read somewhere that about 100 years ago we were running out of oil, whale oil. There was a huge concern about how we would light our streets and homes.) As the price of oil increases, reserves that were too expensive to pump will become economicly viable. Alternatives for energy, such as solar and geothermal, will become competitive. Recycling will be more profitable. The human mind thrives on solving problems, especially when there is an incentive, be it financial rewards or survival.
Comment by Jim McIntosh — March 27, 2008 @ 5:00 pm
Forgetfulness pills can be purchased from http://www.smart-drugs.com
Comment by Michael — March 27, 2008 @ 5:45 pm
You can tell where the most innovation and greatest growth will occur by looking at those areas that are subject to the least amount of government regulation. Examples from this article, from 1968 to 2008:
1. Consumer electronics, little regulation, progress evenly to underestimated.
2. Transportation, moderate to heavy regulation (and taxation), progress overestimated.
3. Medicine and education, very heavy regulation, progress overestimated.
The bottom line: leave mankind free to innovate and trade on an open market, and we will. Here’s aviation visionary Burt Rutan making the point with regard to space flight:
http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/4
Comment by Mike — March 27, 2008 @ 6:04 pm
Reminds me of my friend Joe when i mention sci fi movies like “Space 1999″ and he jokingly replies, Oh yeah you mean like on the History channel!” As so many books, movies and such have dates that have come and past. Star trek ok so far it’s dates still far in future;)
Comment by Doug — March 27, 2008 @ 6:56 pm
How funny is it that the author failed to speculate on the role of the West on general global strife. Don’t want to be shot as an infidel? Stand up against the oppression and give the poor Middle East people a break. Or cut down on the greediness.
Comment by uXuf — March 27, 2008 @ 8:49 pm
I think we need to seriously accelerate the space program so that as soon as possible we can find a separate planet to relocate Islamic nuts like #102, who can’t live in peace with anybody else.
Comment by GSorensen — March 27, 2008 @ 9:07 pm
Speaking of History Channel and retro-future… they’ve got a fascinating series called “Ancient Discoveries,” about how the ancient world actually had a number of technological devices we thought were only recently invented, like flame-throwers, grenades, and landmines, vending machines, fancy clocks (including astronomical clocks), and even a kind of robotics. In fact, the ancient Chinese actually drilled for oil with their own oil derricks hundreds upon hundreds of years ago!
As for Space 1999 and 2001: A Space Odyssey…. there were some things about both that even today seem perfectly plausible… albeit we didn’t see many of them due to a loss in momentum in the space program. The Tube Train in Moonbase Alpha could probably be built today with existing technology, those Commlink things are basically just video cellphones, the Eagle Transporter, visually, looks almost like it could probably be built with today’s tech… except it wouldn’t be useful as a planet-to-Moon-and-back-again vehicle but as a vehicle to travel from one place on the Moon to another. Other technology in Space 1999, though, was pure space-opera. (Force-field projections over the Moonbase! Electronically-generated gravity that could be dialed up and down!) And then there were technologies still in use on the show that now seem laughably backwards. (One big computer taking up a whole wall of the command center! And at one point, a character was writing a report using an electric typewriter! What, no laptop or desktop computers?!?)
2001: A Space Odyssey, if you deleted all year-references in it, could almost be taken today as a vision of… say, 2068, or 2099… except, of course, some of the human-interfaces (like that identify-your-nationality-and-destination video terminal on the space station) seem too simple (that terminal should have had more buttons, or should have had a touch-screen interactive system in which the menu items could easily be changed out as needed), and of course, since the movie came out, AT&T has changed its corporate logo… several times, and of course Pan Am is long gone, it exists now only as a company name that has itself changed hands multiple times.
“Blade Runner” expected the future to change quite a bit more than it probably should have expected it to, also. That movie expected roughly 40 years into the then future we’d have cities filled with buildings hundreds of stories tall, artificially created people who you couldn’t tell from natural born people until you started talking to them for awhile, and of course the obligatory flying cars.
“Always in motion is the future,” said Yoda. “Difficult to see.”
But of course, as someone else here pointed out, 40 years from now probably won’t be that different than the world of today, we’ll just have smaller and cheaper computers, more personal electronics of various types, groundcars that behave more or less like those of today, traveling on roads not that much different than those of today, going to and from houses and office buildings looking almost the same as those of today… but there’ll be devices and services we never dreamed of today that will be commonplace, and some devices that today we think will be around forever will be simply gone.
Look back at Heinlein’s novels that had us still using slide-rules centuries from now, or look at all those science fiction novels of the 40s and 50s that assumed that all our radios and computational devices would still be using vacuum tubes even into the 22nd Century! And of course none of them predicted MP3 players or Garmin street navigators. Some of them did predict pocket calculators, though. Go figure. Uh… if you’ll pardon the unintended pun.
Comment by Nomad of Norad — March 27, 2008 @ 10:31 pm
It occurs to me that some of the bigger shopping malls are pretty close to being examples of domed cities — well, roofed cities, since the roofs are sometimes arched, but rarely domed.
Comment by B22 — March 27, 2008 @ 11:19 pm
“Future not available in Africa, Central and South America, India, China, or Asia” - MST3K
Comment by Tonsure Wimple — March 28, 2008 @ 12:07 am
Amazing how many of the comments mention the lack of flying cars now when the article clearly states that the 300mph automatic vehicle is riding on a PLASTIC ROADWAY.
Comment by pmichael — March 28, 2008 @ 6:47 am
Zager & Evans gave a bleak futuristic prediction in their song, “In the Year 2525″
In the year 2525
If man is still alive.
If woman can survive, they may find.
In the year 3535
Ain’t gonna need to tell the truth, tell no lies.
Everything you think, do and say, is in the pill you took today.
In the year 4545
Ain’t gonna need your teeth, won’t need your eyes.
You won’t find a thing to chew.
Nobody’s gonna look at you.
In the year 5555
Your arms hanging limp at your sides.
Your legs got nothing to do.
Some machine doing that for you.
In the year 6565
Ain’t gonna need no husband, won’t need no wife.
You’ll pick your son, pick your daughter too.
From the bottom of a long glass tube. Whoa-oh
In the year 7510
If God’s a-comin, he oughta make it by then.
Maybe he’ll look around himself and say.
Guess it’s time for the judgment day.
In the year 8510
God is gonna shake his mighty head.
He’ll either say I’m pleased where man has been.
Or tear it down and start again. Whoa-oh
In the year 9595
I’m kinda wonderin if man is gonna be alive.
He’s taken everything this old Earth can give.
And he ain’t put back nothing. Whoa-oh
Now it’s been ten thousand years
Man has cried a billion tears.
For what he never knew,
now man’s reign is through.
But through eternal night.
The twinkling of starlight.
So very far away.
Maybe it’s only yesterday.
Comment by Cap'n Kelly _/) — March 28, 2008 @ 7:03 am
i got a good laugh about the household menu planning & shopping + the maids… i also enjoyed the part about the advances in medical technology, since for the past month i’ve been in and out of hospitals, laboratories, etc. and i’m rather fed up with the pain and constant fatigue i’m now experiencing at a mere 46 years of age… i feel more like 80!
personally, i wish that 2008 NEVER even existed. (well, actually it all began in 2007, and seems to be never-ending…)
BOTH of my hands have recently suffered neurological damage - i am normally right-handed but now i can barely hold a pen - thank god for computers; at least i can muster up enough strength for one-finger typing …! i live alone and no one comes ’round in the morning to help me get dressed (ever try to tackle simple daily things such as buttons & zippers when you’re nearly handicapped ?)= think i’m going to continue living in pyjamas from now on - it’s much easier!
Comment by Madame MARY LIGGETT — March 28, 2008 @ 7:06 am
I think the major unexamined factor in these future fantasies is the interaction between public and private governance.
A lot of the predictions are wrong for more than one reason (like the domed cities). But one reason they are wrong is that they assume the wrong level of public investment in infrastructure. For example, the proposed transit system with its 250 mph speeds would require an enormous public investment. Is that likely to happen? It may or may not. In the US, probably not.
There have been enormous infrastructure projects in the past, like the US interstate highway system. The interstate highway system has shaped the US economy and technology enormously. For one thing, it took away traffic from the enormously more efficient railway system, and encouraged our love affair with big fast cars. Some would say both developments ultimately turned out to be negative.
Public investment in infrastructure varies enormously as economic and political forces shift. No futurologist that I know of has ever considered that factor. They all assume that we will blithely pay whatever taxes are necessary to build that enormous dome over the city, for example, even if we would enjoy greater safety, security, wealth, and efficiency overall. As some of the comments above illustrate, that isn’t likely.
I think that is a uniquely American failing. Public dollars projects change everything we see, but we refuse to acknowledge that. We cling to the fantasy that we can, by ourselves, with our own two hands, create our own lives out of whole cloth. For many elements of the life they want, Americans will have to buy them from their government with taxes.
A second element that crystal ball gazers rarely acknowledge is the differences between the rich and the not-so-rich. The article proposes that most people will take classes of some kind for a few hours a day. How will that be paid for? If it comes out of people’s pockets, then not everybody will be able to pay for it. The people who can’t will fall further behind. Their productivity and consumption will drop, and the economy will suffer overall.
A second example: All the cars and roads will have a system so that the cars can drive themselves safely at high speeds. But for the system to be optimally efficient, everybody will have to have a self-driving (or centrally controlled, or whatever) car. Even a few manually driven cars would slow down the overall system quite a bit, and would also increase the demands on the control system. The computers would have to continually react to an element that is outside its control, rather than being able to coordinate all parts of the system.
So the problem is that if only a few cars have that feature, then it is worthless. The value comes when everybody’s car has that feature.
So how would that happen, in a free market? How would that feature ever become universal? With other worthwhile features (like antilock brakes, say) some manufacturer introduces it in premium cars, and then the feature trickles down into lower priced cars until it is offered across the board. In the case of antilock brakes, that process has taken over 20 years, and they are still not universally available. That, plus the fact that people buy new cars only once every 7 years or so on average, means that antilock brakes are far from universal in cars actually on the street right now. And that is a feature that would appear to have pretty clear benefits to the individual driver. A “smart” car/road combination would have no benefit to an individual driver unless everybody else had it too.
And I think is another aspect of that American blindness to the need for cooperative, collective action. We would rather be left alone on our property, and if them dadburn revenooers ever step on our land, we’ll fill ‘em up with buckshot. Well, there are certain problems we just can’t shoot.
Comment by Karl — March 28, 2008 @ 10:34 am
I bet those credit cards have really messed up the panhandlers. Probably have to use Photon Ray guns to get change, So the adage will still ring true: Got a gun? Got a job! Seriously, if the U.S. spent more bucks expanding their research on something plausible like undersea gardens and just exploring our vast seas, our whole world would benefit, yet they still throw it away on space. Don’t get me wrong, but our oceans are a positive and space is still a maybe. If I may be so bold in expressing my belief that God gave us a world to learn how to live in, and while discovery is one of man’s greatest abilities and assets, why don’t we figure out what our seas can do for us? We have barely scratched the surface of our world, pun intended. Maybe there is signs of life out there, I’m okay with finding that out, but is it our life? Through personal experience I can believe “the truth is out there”, but let’s explore what has been given us by no matter who you believe in or for what reason. We have the inquisitive mind set, let’s get our direction on the right track-home! Stop wasting our tax dollars on a maybe, concentrate on the real and let the maybe confirm itself. According to the Mayan Calendar, the world is going to end in 2012 anyway, that’s as far as their calendars go, which probably seemed like a pretty long stretch to them. We could share our knowledge with other countries, come to grips with famine and maybe develop a new fuel for our massive transit. How many countries would actually attack someone who is providing food and keeping their children from dying an unnecessary death. Do we really need space or is it more practical to lift our feet up and see what is underneath. We have mountains we could build entire cities inside and oceans that can and possibly will support millions. The challenge today is not the Popular Science idea but the Popular Mechanics action. Shoot my words down if you must but how many millions, nay billions has been spent on space? Yet children die on the streets in many countries due to war, famine and disease. How many Horseman do we need to show us the way? Space is waste, you will never see that dollar again but what else could we do with that dollar? ~desertratdan
Comment by dsesertratdan — March 28, 2008 @ 12:26 pm
Karl, your comments are spot on, but we have to remember we cannot satisfy the whole and there are still a few people who believe “them Revenoors” are trying to force those ABS brakes on us, and would not have them on their car. The car makers want to sell all their new fangled equipment so they must compromise to the lowest [as they see it] level. I’ve always had ABS on my cars throughout the mellinium. Uh, that does stand for “Almost a Braking System” doesn’t it?
Comment by dsesertratdan — March 28, 2008 @ 12:40 pm
2048? In the USA social security and medicare long ago went bankrupt, not long after the universal healthcare system instituted in 2011 went belly-up. Western Europe is an Islamic caliphate closely aligned with the Islamic Republic of Iran which spans from Northern Africa across to present day Pakistan. China has taken over the old Russian Republic since rapidly declining birthrates left nobody to defend the resource rich country outside of Moscow. Japan, Singapore, Australia, SoKorea still are functioning but the trend towards women having fewer than 2.1 children starting in the 1990’s has depleted their populations and rendered them unimportant, declining nations.
The USA is in the first phase of peacefully taking over Canada, another nation with a declining population. Mexico long ago was annexed by the US and provides most energy not bought from Canada. The USA is, of course, 75% hispanic– immigration from South and Central America being needed to keep population levels around 300 million. Only about 15% is non-hispanic white as that group long ago stopped having enough children to maintain a static population level.
Oh, and no flying cars.
Comment by Bill Wilson — March 28, 2008 @ 1:18 pm
The ones that have not come true like clean technology, speeding hovering fast cars, health for everyone, have been retarded artificially by the economic powers that gain profit from old fossil fuel technology and pharmaceutical companies who prefer to have sick people and make money out of them. A healthy person is a lost customer.
Comment by unbreak — March 28, 2008 @ 4:47 pm
James R Berry appears to be a Sci Fi writter
here are some of his books
http://www.fantasticfiction.co.....vaders.htm
http://www.fantasticfiction.co.....rianne.htm
http://www.fantasticfiction.co.....planet.htm
http://www.fantasticfiction.co.....rbrite.htm
Comment by unbreak — March 28, 2008 @ 5:04 pm
pmichael (#107), yes, it is gliding over a plastic roadway, but it is gliding on an air cushon. In that sense, it is a flying car. The point of such “flying” is that if you eliminate the friction between road and vehicle, you can travel much faster with a given amount of energy. In the 1960s, people expected to achieve this using hovercraft technology. Now, they do it in China using magnetic levitation.
Oh, and Karl, I’m quite sure the private sector not building transport infrastructure is not due to the cost of it. The private sector routinely builds projects that cost more than suburban train lines or local freeways. Chip fab plants, oil refineries, skyscrapers, airports and large ships are just some of the things that cost more to build than light rail lines, and all are routinely built by the private sector. The real problem is lack of a legal framework and economic model whereby an investor in transport infrastructure can get their money back without involving the government as a client. If roads were charged to the driver rather than to the taxpayer, there’d be much more opportunity for privately-built transport infrastructure.
Here’s how we could have “flying cars” well before 2048: the first step is to bring the Inductrack maglev system to maturity. This could happen within five years. The next step is to find a site that demands very rapid, very comfortable travel, and is willing to pay a premium. I can imagine, for instance, a link from Dubai to Abu Dhabi — about 120 km (75 miles). If someone built an exclusive track, with car-sized vehicles that traveled at 250mph (400km/h), connecting the two cities, the capital cost should be a lot less than the cost of building a system for big maglev trains, like the one running in China now. There would probably be quite a lot of business and affluent leisure travelers willing to ride between Abu Dhabi and Dubai for, say, $200 a ticket, to enjoy the thrill and simultaneously save 30 minutes of travel time. If not there, then maybe somewhere in China or Khazakstan, connecting an airport to a business district. In other words, somewhere up-and-coming, and optimistic enough to make room for an ambitious project just because it sounded cool in prospect. This could happen by 2015 or 2020. If it was a commercial success, it would surely spread rapidly. Green politics, being anti-aircraft, would probably encourage its spread.
By 2048, there could be a web of these things spanning the globe, connecting every major city.
Comment by B22 — March 28, 2008 @ 5:08 pm
Bill Wilson (#113) I applaud you on thinking seriously about how demographics will affect the future. However, I think there are too many wildcards for us to predict reliably how demographic forces will go that far into the future. First of all, there’s the possibility that some countries will successfully implement nativist policies, and so grow their populations. Then there’s eugenics. A kind of private-sector eugenics is currently evolving based on embryo screening, surrogate mothers, private sperm and egg banks, etc., that could within a generation or two completely transform the structure of populations. Perhaps the rich and clever will begin reproducing at a greatly increased rate, relative to the rest, and produce offspring that are (subtly) superhuman. If this happens, we’ll have to say that all bets are off. Finally, there’s medicine. There’s a real chance that progress in medicine could in the next few years radically increase healthy lifespans. This could bring population decline to a halt, and also result in people being economically active for much longer. This could completely transform the prospects for countries like Japan, Italy and Russia, whose populations are currently declining.
Comment by B22 — March 28, 2008 @ 5:26 pm
I find the comments more fascinating than the original article. It seems there are 2 camps: the “I don’t have a flying car this guy got it completely wrong” and the “I’ve got a roombot and a computer this guy was pretty accurate”.
It seems all you have to do is list enough predictions and some people will pick up on the few that are vaguely approximate to what happens and declare you a seer. The rest pick up on everything you got wrong and declare you an idiot.
Anyway, enough about astrologers…
Comment by Ian Nicholson — March 29, 2008 @ 2:31 am
There are also some comments theorizing about why he got certain predictions more accurate than others, so it’s not totally polarized.
Comment by B22 — March 29, 2008 @ 5:42 am
My eyes are popping out - or is my brain expanding,as Neil from “The Young Ones” would say Heeaaveeey Maaan!
Comment by steve EE — March 29, 2008 @ 6:22 pm
You should check out the Discovery channel series 2057 it’s interesting. And my 2 cents is that in 40-50 years the U.S. will be in serious trouble has we have not invested in our infrastructure in about 40 years back when that article was wrttien and modern highways were new inventions. They expected that the U.S. would continue with such ventures but sadly we have not and fallen far behind the rest of the world when it comes to modernizing our cross country travel. mag lev would definitly be well worth it but the U.S. population will not buy into it until its too late. Just look at $4 gas and people still drive SUVs and other gas guzzlers (I live in TX, LOL) so until gas hits $7+, which it will eventually, people will not demand smaller more efficient cars or a better transportation system. If we do not solve this problem it could cripple commerce in the future if we cannot deliver goods and services swiftly (if we still make anything in this country in 50 years). Also China and India will be the new super powers as the U.S. struggles to stay significant.
Comment by Sameer — March 29, 2008 @ 10:19 pm
Oh and he did get quite a few things right which you can say is luck or not but it takes a certain level of higher than normal intuition or insight
Comment by Sameer — March 29, 2008 @ 10:31 pm
personally, I’m awaiting the day of cybernetic bodies like in the manga/anime Ghost in the Shell. problem is, by the time they come out, i’ll be either too old or too poor to be able to take advantage of having one
Comment by Vendetta1000 — March 30, 2008 @ 12:44 am
Thinking from today to tomorrow. Our drinking water–what will that be like in 2048? Today we’re getting drugs from the water we’re drinking, recycled from our neighbor’s medicine cabinet via the water treatment system.
Was that forecast in 1968? Of course not. Never even made it into the magazine article. Just taken for granted.
Isn’t that what public officials are supposed to be doing at the direction of the voters? Planning for the future. But short-term thinking dominates.
I wish I could feel optimistic but in reading all the comments what I see is the absolute waste of the last 40 years in gadget mentality that leaves the well off ok but with a disintegrating infrastructure around us.
Comment by Ken — March 30, 2008 @ 4:22 am
In the late 1930’s I was in awe of a future prediction in an ad, of a mother and son sitting near a large screen device out of which a strip of newsprint was bringing them up to date news. The Future was then! At the time I was just learning to form letters and look at books. I still prefer a book or magazine and an easy chair, but here I sit at a computer screen looking for the daily “news”. Few had jobs, much less money, so our dreams were much different than they turned out to be. Technology has its good points, but I still miss roaming the fields and peering under rocks, playing baseball with a stick and beaten up ball, and the laughter of neighbors sitting about in their yards calling to one another, etc.. I didn’t talk on a telephone until I was 8 and found no true value in it. Myfriends were all outside calling to me! It is truly most amazing to think of all that I have seen come to life and in use, but the downside still haunts me. My mother was born shortly before the Wright Bros. “flew”, and lived to jet around the country to see her grandchildren. I wonder what the future holds for my grandchildren, but I don’t think its what its cracked up to be. Color me old. You will be one day!
Comment by JoAnn — March 30, 2008 @ 7:51 am
Ken… maybe we should drink the water from our Hydrogen fueled cars!
But seriously, the ‘drugs in our water’ story is a testament to the sensitivity of the detectors.
It’s well under the biologically active level.
(Yes, none at all would be preferred.)
Comment by jayessell — March 30, 2008 @ 10:32 am
I dunno, seems like when I was wearing a younger man’s clothes, a much younger man’s clothes, I can remember when Buck Rogers’ escapades and equipment were relegated to the Sunday comics. Too much of those pages has come to fruition. Dick Tracy’s wrist two-way radio is also a fait acompli. We have no way ofknowing what the future brings but there was a time when horse and buggy wre state-of-the-art and airplanes, telephones, television and heart transplants were not even thought of let among other modern accomplishments were not even thought of. If you, I and our offspring live long enough we may yet see some of the things presented become fact.
Comment by Stan 1 — March 30, 2008 @ 6:14 pm
Many thanks for the links unbreak. According to the site you linked to, James R Berry (if its the same guy, and the years all match), he’s still alive. I’d love to try and get him on the site.
Comment by punky — March 31, 2008 @ 2:34 am
I wonder, is this material out of copyright yet, or does this site have permission to scan these articles? If not, James Berry might be a little annoyed to discover that he’s not earning any royalties off this.
Comment by B22 — March 31, 2008 @ 9:24 am
Mr. Berry neglected to mention the most radical improvement in the last 40 years: Female breast augmentation!
Comment by Big Daddy — March 31, 2008 @ 10:35 am
If I were James R. Berry, I would be pleased to see interest being generated in my books, and people taking the time to look them up and post web links where they can be purchased - even if they are used or old-stock. Free publicity is the best kind, and the gentleman deserves some.
About flying cars - to me flying is not maglev or air-cushion. That’s just suspension, and nobody would have given the Wright Brothers very much recognition for it. The average person has no idea who invented the hovercraft or maglev.
Who’s going to be in charge of Air Traffic Control for them? FAA? The only way it could be done is strictly regulated control in flight lanes by centralized computer systems. Nobody would want that - the whole “cool” factor of flight is freedom. To grab those controls, swoop around, loop-the-loop, and finish off with a victory roll.
Comment by Netminder — March 31, 2008 @ 8:28 pm
Netminder… The personal flying vehicles would operate like Willie Wonka’s elevator.
You select a destination and it follows a virtual highway (Back to the Future 2) to get there.
I think that’s an acceptable flying car, even if it drops you off at the door and parks itself.
Comment by jayessell — April 1, 2008 @ 5:49 am
“Heart disease has virtually been eliminated by drugs and diet.” Not quite. And what about diabetes? He failed to take into account that all of our leisure time would be spent in front of our multi-mode TVs eating processed foods. That’s what you get when your workday is 4 hours or less.
Comment by Randy — April 1, 2008 @ 7:16 am
Right on, Jaysell! You are getting my vote on this. And lwhile you are at it, please, let those flying vehicles come in in the same variety of sizes and capacities like the cars of today, so that we will not be doomed to travel only in our own personal capsule - as per the article in the “Scientific American” magazine (1966).
Comment by Verda Stelo — April 1, 2008 @ 7:26 am
“About flying cars - to me flying is not maglev or air-cushion.” Flying cars exist. Quite a few designs have been built over the years, but nobody really wants or needs them. More to the point, James R. Berry didn’t mention flying cars. He talked about cars traveling along a road on an air cushion at 250 mph.
Comment by B22 — April 1, 2008 @ 9:10 pm
B22…
Citation needed.
There’s ‘built’ and then there’s ‘flown’.
(I could ‘build’ a time machine!)
Comment by jayessell — April 2, 2008 @ 4:50 am
http://www.google.co.uk/search?q=%22flying+car
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flying_Car
On Wikipedia, we are told that the most successful flying car of all time was/is the Aerocar, first built in 1949. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aerocar
It was a proper, street-legal car that had fold-away wings, and could fly, and was fully certified for flying.
So, as you can see, flying cars were possible with 1949 technology, yet they never caught on. Plainly, there’s not much call for them.
Now, a car that could drive itself at 250mph, that would be useful. If it could be done economically, there’d be plenty of demand.
Comment by B22 — April 2, 2008 @ 10:52 am
Pretty cool. The only thing missing is any mention of global warming, the “War on Terror”, or the fact that the most powerful country spends the bulk of its resources on militarism, and constantly threatens other, less powerful countries to do its bidding in facilitating the takeover of their own economies by the bigger country’s already huge multinational corporations. The human race spins ever more out of control, self-control, into a cannibalistic, technology-fueled frenzy of consuming itself out of existence. What a beautiful thing.
Comment by Auntie Hosebag — April 2, 2008 @ 3:00 pm
…or the fact that the most powerful country spends the bulk of its resources on militarism, and constantly threatens other, less powerful countries to do its bidding in facilitating the takeover of their own economies by the bigger country’s already huge multinational corporations.
So, umm, like the British Empire…?
Comment by iwdw — April 3, 2008 @ 12:59 pm
What jumps out at me is the unabashed optimism of 1968 — the Utopian future would be wonderful. No question about it. That attitude was to be short-lived, as we soon moved to fear that the world would be done in by over-population, pollution, an ice age, nuclear war or global warming. That pessimism is evident in many of the comments here. Did the “audacity of hope” die out in 1968?
Comment by David Downing — April 3, 2008 @ 3:49 pm
#140, David Dowling:
Yah, there’s been an awful rise of defeatism since the late 1960s, and technophobia is rampant. Only advances in computing are accepted without much complaint (occasional panics about the dangers of the internet aside) — significant advances in any other area of technology seem to provoke mass dread, and there’s a feeling that all technologies currently in the pipeline will surely never arrive. It’s odd.
Comment by B22 — April 4, 2008 @ 7:43 am
why do you think people have technophobia? can you give examples? i think most people are open to technological advances.
by the way. i have a great question. how come we havent been looking into alternative fuel 30 yrs ago? why has it just been on the forefront since around 2002?
Comment by chad — April 4, 2008 @ 10:43 pm
Chad, you must be a young whippersnapper. We WERE looking into alternative energy 30 yeqrs ago. That’s when the ethanol push started. Waaaay back in 1980, when I was in high school, I even took a special class in alternative energy. That took off so well that the teacher behind it isn’t even in teaching anymore — he’s now a CPA. I think that’s why I’m skeptical/cynical about all the current “green” movements — I’ve seen it before. When oil prices drop, we’ll lose interest. (You say they’ll never drop from current levels? That’s what they said in 1980, too.) And being concerned about the environment isn’t new. Before we became concerned about petroleum and energy, the big concern was pollution. In school they used to show us these films of a future where everyone had to wear a gas mask to walk outside, and you could barely see the sun through all the pollution. But that was when we were still concerned that an ice age was coming! I’m sounding like an old man, and I’m only 44! It really is hard to find anything new. All the same stuff just goes around and around.
Comment by David Downing — April 5, 2008 @ 1:35 pm
Well JoAnn and Stan 1, you are 2 people in this mob that I can commiserate with. You have to know one thing though, of all the modernization going on around us, part of that intelligence came from us, our genes, and our parents genes. We are the ones who decided we wanted more for our children than what we had for ourselves. Is this not true? We strive to progress and fought wars to deny and all of this resulted in the “new”, “the never heard of” and dare I say, technology of modern times. We are the leaders of technology, if not the brains of it. They can design it and they can build it but it took us to buy it and to believe in it. We unfortunately, have no one to blame for exclusion but ourselves. Look around you, do you see the same happiness that we shared as children? The freedom to roam the streets and countrysides without fear dominating our excursions? I’m not always too sure our desires were a success or a catastrophe. Now it gets mindlessly approved and built only for the dollar, not to see the happiness in little Stan and JoAnn’s eyes. Maybe the comment about Willie Wonka was closer to absolute. We are greedy and selfish and disrespectful as a Nation now and our own leaders are not there for the people, only the dollar. They raise taxes, cut Social Security and even take back benefits to our veterans at times, yet have always given themselves a pay raise like clockwork. I pay the scientist for he is my child, I pay the mechanic for he does what I cannot and I pay the ones who serve for the smile they bring to my heart. These are now what bring us, the older ones, pleasure in our life. I love nothing more than watching the sunrise or set, my old dog beside me and living with the knowledge that we are the ones that have set the standard and our children are the ones who modified it, just as we planned in our hearts. Progress has never been about satisfaction and we cannot expect a new generation and a newer generation after them, to be satisfied. It is now up to them to pass the torch and to enforce the standard and we get to watch the sunrise on a new era and enjoy the benefits that spill over to our endless appetites. ’nuff said. ~desertratdan
Comment by dsesertratdan — April 5, 2008 @ 5:17 pm
You ask for examples of technophobia, Chad. Well, in Shanghai, China, there have been protests against an extension of the maglev train line, because people fear it will bring “magnetic pollution”, which will cause all sorts of illn